Proof That Economists Make Wild Guesses, Not Forecasts

A study by the Reserve Bank of Australia found out that their economic predictions could’ve just as easily been done by a monkey throwing darts at a chart:

  • Only 70% of inflation forecasts were accurate
  • Unemployment estimates were as good as a roll of the dice
  • Economic growth predictions were somewhere in between

They looked at 20 years’ worth of forecasts for the year ahead to get that data. Bottom line: forecasting the economy is like trying to forecast the dice in craps, but instead of losing money to the casino, you get paid a high salary and get mentioned in the news every year. Why? Because we need to plan for something in the future… even if those plans are based on fiction.

See also:

From Australian Broadcasting Corporation, via Slashdot

 

Comments are closed.